Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Predicting the Real Estate Market

This will probably get me in a real fix...not a good idea to predict...Oh well the Lord hates a coward. The biggest thing to remember is that for the most part Real Estate is local. The Philadelphia area has historically held its own in Real Estate turn down cycles. The past has shown a typical adjustment in this region of about 10% . With some areas actually showing equity gains and others maybe deeper adjustments. We live in an area of diversified industries and job markets. This helps offset any major unemployment spikes. Any way back to the Real Estate market. As long as there is not a major change in the economy for any reason, it comes down to supply and demand. The inventory of homes for sale should start to dwindle over the next couple of months. The sellers who wished they would have sold two years ago will either SELL or decide not to and stay where they are. Although there may be a greater influx of short sales and REO sales the lenders will figure out some of the prices they are trying to get are not realistic...investors will be able to acquire them at a faster rate as the REO departments become better managed. Buyers can still get reasonable mortgages ...FHA is not new...we at JB Realty Service have been doing FHA loans for over 20 years....mortgage brokers and realtors just got lazy over the last few years and used the quicker and less regulated 100% conventional loans. They will need to become educated OR re-educated with these loans and the consumer wins. These loans have continued to be at the top of options for all qualified buyers. I think all is in place for us to see the bottom over the winter with a return to a normal Real Estate market next spring...Normal does not mean the hyper market of three or four years ago but more stable prices and reasonable sale times of 2-5 months. I will talk about interest rates next time....Watch out for interest rate spikes coming. In the mean time, check us out at http://www.jbrealtyservice.com./